GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-69
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 75.0, "implied_p": 0.75} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-69", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0, "prob_error": 0.0, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Malik Ellison win the Ballislife x OTD 1v1 between Dominique "Left Hand Dom" Alexander and Malik Ellison?". The market currently prices YES at 75.00 cents (implied probability 0.750). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This match **already happened** on March 28, 2026 at Ballislife's Judgement Day event. Malik Ellison won decisively **31-11** — the live log calls it "a massacre by Malik" and "wasn't just a win, this was a massacre." **My probability: 1.0 (100%)** The market at 75¢ is severely mispriced — the outcome is known and verified.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 1.0,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This match **already happened** on March 28, 2026 at Ballislife's Judgement Day event. Malik Ellison won decisively **31-11** \u2014 the live log calls it \"a massacre by Malik\" and \"wasn't just a win, this was a massacre.\"\n\n**My probability: 1.0 (100%)**\n\nThe market at 75\u00a2 is severely mispriced \u2014 the out",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 25.66879105567932
}