GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-68
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 65.0, "implied_p": 0.65} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-68", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the March Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?". The market currently prices YES at 65.00 cents (implied probability 0.650). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have access to current economic data, recent Banxico communications, or inflation trends needed to form an informed probability for this specific meeting. My knowledge is cutoff and I can't browse real-time central bank data. For a $1000 bankroll on a 65¢ market: without an edge, the Kelly criterion suggests $0 bet. If you have private information or a model giving you a different probability, size accordingly. Otherwise, this is a guess.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have access to current economic data, recent Banxico communications, or inflation trends needed to form an informed probability for this specific meeting. My knowledge is cutoff and I can't browse real-time central bank data.\n\nFor a $1000 bankroll on a 65\u00a2 market: without an edge, the Kelly ",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 15.07003378868103
}