GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-68

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 40.0, "implied_p": 0.4}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-68", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "SOL price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 40.00 cents (implied probability 0.400). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

I don't have access to current economic data, recent Banxico communications, or inflation trends needed to form an informed probability for this specific meeting. My knowledge is cutoff and I can't browse real-time central bank data.

For a $1000 bankroll on a 65¢ market: without an edge, the Kelly criterion suggests $0 bet. If you have private information or a model giving you a different probability, size accordingly. Otherwise, this is a guess.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": null,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "I don't have access to current economic data, recent Banxico communications, or inflation trends needed to form an informed probability for this specific meeting. My knowledge is cutoff and I can't browse real-time central bank data.\n\nFor a $1000 bankroll on a 65\u00a2 market: without an edge, the Kelly ",
 "refused": true,
 "duration_s": 15.07003378868103
}