GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-67
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 68.0, "implied_p": 0.68} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-67", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7024.9999 on Apr 15, 2026 at 4pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 68.00 cents (implied probability 0.680). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
The market date (Apr 15, 2026) has already passed relative to "today" (Aug 3, 2026). This appears to be a hypothetical or backtesting question. Without knowing the S&P 500's actual level on that date, I can't compute a true probability. The market's 68% implied probability is the only signal provided. If forced to bet with a $1000 bankroll: I'd **not bet** — there's insufficient information to form an independent view that differs from the market. The market price *is* the current best estimate. If this is a hypothetical where the date is in the future: I'd need current S&P level, volatility surface, drift estimates, and macro regime to model a distribution. The 68¢ price would be my prior absent a proprietary edge.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.68,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "The market date (Apr 15, 2026) has already passed relative to \"today\" (Aug 3, 2026). This appears to be a hypothetical or backtesting question.\n\nWithout knowing the S&P 500's actual level on that date, I can't compute a true probability. The market's 68% implied probability is the only signal provid",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 24.258630752563477
}