GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-62
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 29.0, "implied_p": 0.29} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-62", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 100000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 29.00 cents (implied probability 0.290). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have access to real-time economic data, BLS forecasts, or leading indicators needed to form an independent probability estimate for March 2026 nonfarm payrolls. The market price of 0.77 reflects aggregated information I cannot access or process. Without a model or data advantage, my honest probability equals the market price: **0.77**. Betting against the market without an edge has negative expected value.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.77,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have access to real-time economic data, BLS forecasts, or leading indicators needed to form an independent probability estimate for March 2026 nonfarm payrolls. The market price of 0.77 reflects aggregated information I cannot access or process.\n\nWithout a model or data advantage, my honest ",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 25.237712860107422
}