GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-60
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 67.0, "implied_p": 0.67} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-60", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.4489000000000001, "prob_error": 0.67, "calibration_bin": 6} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "HIFK Helsinki vs KalPa Kuopio Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 67.00 cents (implied probability 0.670). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have access to current sports data (team form, injuries, head-to-head stats, lineups, home/away advantage, etc.) to form an informed probability for this specific hockey matchup. To assess this market, you'd want to analyze: - Recent form for both teams (last 10-20 games) - Head-to-head history - Injury/suspension reports - Goalie matchups - Home/away splits (HIFK at home vs KalPa away) - Rest days/travel schedule - Betting market consensus across other books Without that data, any probability I'd give would be a pure guess. The market's 67% implies HIFK is a moderate favorite — you'd need to decide if you have an edge based on your own research.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.67,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have access to current sports data (team form, injuries, head-to-head stats, lineups, home/away advantage, etc.) to form an informed probability for this specific hockey matchup.\n\nTo assess this market, you'd want to analyze:\n- Recent form for both teams (last 10-20 games)\n- Head-to-head his",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.802161931991577
}