GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-6
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 3.0, "implied_p": 0.03} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-6", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0009, "prob_error": 0.03, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 3.00 cents (implied probability 0.030). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
The question is incomplete — "Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?" doesn't specify what range the market is asking about (e.g., >$100k? $80k–$90k? <$50k?). A 3¢ YES price (3% implied probability) typically means the market sees the event as unlikely — perhaps a very high price target or an extremely narrow band. **To give a meaningful probability, I need the exact resolution criterion.** What specific price range does the market define as "YES"? (Also: I don't have a bankroll, personal beliefs, or ability to bet — I can only offer a calibrated forecast if you provide the full market definition.)
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.03,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "The question is incomplete \u2014 \"Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?\" doesn't specify what range the market is asking about (e.g., >$100k? $80k\u2013$90k? <$50k?). \n\nA 3\u00a2 YES price (3% implied probability) typically means the market sees the event as unlikely \u2014 perhaps a very high price target or an extrem",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 18.562823057174683
}