GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-6
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-6", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0009, "prob_error": 0.03, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Science and Technology): "What will be the top AI model this month?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
The question is incomplete — "Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?" doesn't specify what range the market is asking about (e.g., >$100k? $80k–$90k? <$50k?). A 3¢ YES price (3% implied probability) typically means the market sees the event as unlikely — perhaps a very high price target or an extremely narrow band. **To give a meaningful probability, I need the exact resolution criterion.** What specific price range does the market define as "YES"? (Also: I don't have a bankroll, personal beliefs, or ability to bet — I can only offer a calibrated forecast if you provide the full market definition.)
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.03,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "The question is incomplete \u2014 \"Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?\" doesn't specify what range the market is asking about (e.g., >$100k? $80k\u2013$90k? <$50k?). \n\nA 3\u00a2 YES price (3% implied probability) typically means the market sees the event as unlikely \u2014 perhaps a very high price target or an extrem",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 18.562823057174683
}