GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-59
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 71.0, "implied_p": 0.71} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-59", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Apr 15, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 71.00 cents (implied probability 0.710). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I can't provide a meaningful probability—I don't have access to the specific price range the market defines as "YES," current Bitcoin price, volatility models, or real-time market data. The market's 71% implied probability already aggregates available information. Without knowing the exact price bounds (e.g., "$80k–$100k"? "$50k–$150k"?), any estimate would be pure speculation. Bitcoin's 8+ month volatility makes precise range forecasts extremely low-confidence. If you believe you have an edge (superior model, info, or risk tolerance), size your bet via Kelly criterion: `f = (bp - q) / b` where `b = 1/0.71 - 1 ≈ 0.41`, `p` = your probability, `q = 1-p`. At $1000 bankroll, a 5% edge (p=0.75) suggests ~$120 bet.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.71,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I can't provide a meaningful probability\u2014I don't have access to the specific price range the market defines as \"YES,\" current Bitcoin price, volatility models, or real-time market data. The market's 71% implied probability already aggregates available information.\n\nWithout knowing the exact price bo",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 12.961719989776611
}