GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-58
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 75.0, "implied_p": 0.75} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-58", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0, "prob_error": 0.0, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Shohei Ohtani: 7+ strikeouts?". The market currently prices YES at 75.00 cents (implied probability 0.750). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This market appears mispriced. Shohei Ohtani hasn't pitched in MLB since 2023 (Tommy John surgery) and is a full-time DH for the Dodgers. Probability of 7+ strikeouts: **~0%**. The 75¢ YES price implies the market either hasn't updated for his role change, or this references a specific historical game. If current, this is a massive edge — but verify the market terms and date first.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.0,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This market appears mispriced. Shohei Ohtani hasn't pitched in MLB since 2023 (Tommy John surgery) and is a full-time DH for the Dodgers. Probability of 7+ strikeouts: **~0%**.\n\nThe 75\u00a2 YES price implies the market either hasn't updated for his role change, or this references a specific historical g",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.645665168762207
}