GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-56
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 61.0, "implied_p": 0.61} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-56", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "XRP price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 61.00 cents (implied probability 0.610). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I cannot provide a reliable probability estimate for a 15-minute XRP price movement. This timescale is dominated by microstructure noise, order flow randomness, and latency arbitrage — not predictable signal. The 61¢ market price reflects the current order book equilibrium, not a "true" probability. Without real-time access to: - Order book depth & imbalance - Recent trade flow / volume profile - Funding rates & basis across venues - Latency-advantaged market maker positions any estimate I give would be pure speculation. On 15-minute horizons, crypto price changes are close to a random walk; the market's 0.61 is as defensible as any number. **If you're treating this as a betting decision:** the Kelly fraction for a 61¢ market with no edge is zero. Don't bet.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.61,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I cannot provide a reliable probability estimate for a 15-minute XRP price movement. This timescale is dominated by microstructure noise, order flow randomness, and latency arbitrage \u2014 not predictable signal. The 61\u00a2 market price reflects the current order book equilibrium, not a \"true\" probability.",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 27.05057692527771
}