GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-54
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 42.0, "implied_p": 0.42} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-54", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.04000000000000001, "prob_error": 0.2, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will egg prices rise by more than 0% in Mar 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 42.00 cents (implied probability 0.420). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have a reliable basis to form a precise probability for March 20% change in March 2026. Egg prices are driven by avian flu outbreaks, feed costs, seasonal demand, and supply chain factors that are highly unpredictable 6+ months out. My honest probability: **~0.45** (slight lean toward YES given historical volatility and current elevated baseline prices, but high uncertainty). The market's 0.42 seems reasonable. With a $1000 bankroll, Kelly would suggest a tiny position at most given the wide confidence interval.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.2,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have a reliable basis to form a precise probability for March 20% change in March 2026. Egg prices are driven by avian flu outbreaks, feed costs, seasonal demand, and supply chain factors that are highly unpredictable 6+ months out.\n\nMy honest probability: **~0.45** (slight lean toward YES g",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.851208925247192
}