GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-53
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 47.0, "implied_p": 0.47} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-53", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.02?". The market currently prices YES at 47.00 cents (implied probability 0.470). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have access to real-time gas price data or current market conditions to make an informed forecast. My knowledge cutoff prevents me from knowing: - Current national average gas price - Recent trends (last few weeks/months) - EIA forecasts, refinery capacity, seasonal factors - Geopolitical developments affecting oil supply Without current data, I can't improve on the market's 47% implied probability. If you have recent data (current average, 30-day trend, EIA short-term outlook), I could help reason through it.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.47,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have access to real-time gas price data or current market conditions to make an informed forecast. My knowledge cutoff prevents me from knowing:\n- Current national average gas price\n- Recent trends (last few weeks/months)\n- EIA forecasts, refinery capacity, seasonal factors\n- Geopolitical de",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 14.263928890228271
}