GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-51
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 49.0, "implied_p": 0.49} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-51", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.16000000000000003, "prob_error": 0.4, "calibration_bin": 6} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 80000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 49.00 cents (implied probability 0.490). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I'd estimate approximately **55-60%** probability of YES. The 80k threshold is well below the ~150-200k monthly average seen in recent non-recession years. March typically sees positive seasonal hiring (spring ramp-up). Unless a recession hits by early 2026, the base rate favors >80k. The market's 49% implies unusual pessimism—possibly pricing in recession risk or policy uncertainty that may be overstated.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.6,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I'd estimate approximately **55-60%** probability of YES.\n\nThe 80k threshold is well below the ~150-200k monthly average seen in recent non-recession years. March typically sees positive seasonal hiring (spring ramp-up). Unless a recession hits by early 2026, the base rate favors >80k.\n\nThe market's",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.677205085754395
}