GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-51

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 23.0, "implied_p": 0.23}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-51", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.36, "prob_error": 0.6, "calibration_bin": 6}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "The Masters: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 5?". The market currently prices YES at 23.00 cents (implied probability 0.230). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

I'd estimate approximately **55-60%** probability of YES.

The 80k threshold is well below the ~150-200k monthly average seen in recent non-recession years. March typically sees positive seasonal hiring (spring ramp-up). Unless a recession hits by early 2026, the base rate favors >80k.

The market's 49% implies unusual pessimism—possibly pricing in recession risk or policy uncertainty that may be overstated.

Parsed

{
 "action": "stand",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.6,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "I'd estimate approximately **55-60%** probability of YES.\n\nThe 80k threshold is well below the ~150-200k monthly average seen in recent non-recession years. March typically sees positive seasonal hiring (spring ramp-up). Unless a recession hits by early 2026, the base rate favors >80k.\n\nThe market's",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 10.677205085754395
}