market-pricing-5

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Apr 7, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 2.00 cents (implied probability 0.020). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000. 

Raw response

The question "Bitcoin price range on Apr 7, 2026?" is incomplete—it doesn't specify **which range** (e.g., $68K–$70K, $100K–$102K, etc.). The Polymarket data shows ~11 distinct range markets for that date, each with different prices.

From the data, the April 7 range markets have `outcome_prices` showing only `['0','1']` or `['1','0']` (likely truncated/placeholder), while later-dated markets (June 2026) show proper decimal prices like `['0.981','0.019']` (YES at ~1.9¢).

**To give you a meaningful probability, I need the specific range.** For example:
- "$68,000–$70,000" (highest volume: 239K, market implies ~50%+)
- "$74,000–$76,000" (volume 49K, market implies low %)
- ">$76,000" (volume 30K, market implies very low %)

**General framework:** Bitcoin's annualized volatility ~60–80%. A $2,000 wide range ~1 year out typically has **5–15% probability** near the current price, dropping to **<1%** far in the tails. If the market prices YES at 2¢ (2%), it's likely a tail range or a narrow band away from the forward price.

**What's the exact range?**

Parsed

{
 "action": "stand",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.5,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "The question \"Bitcoin price range on Apr 7, 2026?\" is incomplete\u2014it doesn't specify **which range** (e.g., $68K\u2013$70K, $100K\u2013$102K, etc.). The Polymarket data shows ~11 distinct range markets for that date, each with different prices.\n\nFrom the data, the April 7 range markets have `outcome_prices` sh",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 223.92368984222412
}