GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-49
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 52.0, "implied_p": 0.52} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-49", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.27040000000000003, "prob_error": 0.52, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Bromley FC win on 2026-04-16?". The market currently prices YES at 52.00 cents (implied probability 0.520). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have sufficient information to give a reliable probability estimate for this specific match. To assess Bromley FC's chances on 2026-04-16, I'd need: - **Opponent** (who are they playing?) - **Venue** (home/away) - **Competition** (league, cup, playoff?) - **Current form/squad** for both teams at that time - **Injuries/suspensions** - **Historical head-to-head** - **League standings context** Without these, any probability would be a guess. The market's 52% implies it's seen as roughly a coin flip — which often means the market lacks strong information or sees genuine uncertainty. If you have access to team news, fixture lists, or modeling tools, you could build a more informed view. Otherwise, the market price itself is probably the best available estimate.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.52,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have sufficient information to give a reliable probability estimate for this specific match. To assess Bromley FC's chances on 2026-04-16, I'd need:\n\n- **Opponent** (who are they playing?)\n- **Venue** (home/away)\n- **Competition** (league, cup, playoff?)\n- **Current form/squad** for both tea",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.70848321914673
}