GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-49

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 37.0, "implied_p": 0.37}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-49", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.2304, "prob_error": 0.48, "calibration_bin": 5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will MrBeast say during Next MrBeast Youtube Video?". The market currently prices YES at 37.00 cents (implied probability 0.370). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

I don't have sufficient information to give a reliable probability estimate for this specific match. To assess Bromley FC's chances on 2026-04-16, I'd need:

- **Opponent** (who are they playing?)
- **Venue** (home/away)
- **Competition** (league, cup, playoff?)
- **Current form/squad** for both teams at that time
- **Injuries/suspensions**
- **Historical head-to-head**
- **League standings context**

Without these, any probability would be a guess. The market's 52% implies it's seen as roughly a coin flip — which often means the market lacks strong information or sees genuine uncertainty.

If you have access to team news, fixture lists, or modeling tools, you could build a more informed view. Otherwise, the market price itself is probably the best available estimate.

Parsed

{
 "action": "stand",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.52,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "I don't have sufficient information to give a reliable probability estimate for this specific match. To assess Bromley FC's chances on 2026-04-16, I'd need:\n\n- **Opponent** (who are they playing?)\n- **Venue** (home/away)\n- **Competition** (league, cup, playoff?)\n- **Current form/squad** for both tea",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 16.70848321914673
}