GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-47
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 53.0, "implied_p": 0.53} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-47", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Entertainment): "How many streams will the top song on Spotify's Daily Top Songs Global for Apr 8, 2026 have?". The market currently prices YES at 53.00 cents (implied probability 0.530). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This question is unanswerable as stated: 1. **Missing threshold**: The market prices "YES" at 53¢, but you didn't specify what "YES" means (e.g., ">10M streams?", ">50M streams?"). Prediction markets require a binary condition. 2. **Date already passed**: Today is Aug 3, 2026 per the environment. April 8, 2026 has already occurred — this is a historical fact, not a future prediction. 3. **No data access**: I cannot access Spotify's historical streaming data for that date. If you have the specific threshold (e.g., "Will streams exceed X million?"), I could help you reason about base rates, but the resolution is already determined and verifiable via Spotify Charts.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This question is unanswerable as stated:\n\n1. **Missing threshold**: The market prices \"YES\" at 53\u00a2, but you didn't specify what \"YES\" means (e.g., \">10M streams?\", \">50M streams?\"). Prediction markets require a binary condition.\n\n2. **Date already passed**: Today is Aug 3, 2026 per the environment. ",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 24.124915838241577
}