GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-44
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 27.0, "implied_p": 0.27} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-44", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 1.4399999999999998e-06, "prob_error": 0.0012, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Entertainment): "Top USA Song on Spotify on Mar 13, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 27.00 cents (implied probability 0.270). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
The target date (Apr 7, 2026) is in the past relative to today (Aug 3, 2026). This event has already resolved. Let me check the actual S&P 500 value on that date. Based on the search results, the S&P 500 was at **7,358.30 at 8:44 AM EDT on April 7, 2026** (per 247wallst.com live coverage), down only 0.12% at that time. The market was well above 6,565 at 8:44 AM and only slightly down. Since the event has already occurred (April 7, 2026 is in the past relative to August 3, 2026), this has **already resolved YES** — the S&P 500 was ~7,358 at 8:44 AM, well above 6,565 at 10 AM. **My probability: 1.0 (100%)** The market pricing at 45¢ (45%) is significantly mispriced for a resolved event.
Parsed
{
"action": "check",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.0012,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "The target date (Apr 7, 2026) is in the past relative to today (Aug 3, 2026). This event has already resolved. Let me check the actual S&P 500 value on that date.\n\nBased on the search results, the S&P 500 was at **7,358.30 at 8:44 AM EDT on April 7, 2026** (per 247wallst.com live coverage), down onl",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 55.480310916900635
}