GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-43
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 43.0, "implied_p": 0.43} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-43", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 26, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 43.00 cents (implied probability 0.430). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have enough information to give a meaningful probability. The question asks about a "Bitcoin price range" but doesn't specify what that range is. To assess this, I'd need to know: 1. What specific price range defines "YES" (e.g., $X-$Y)? 2. Current Bitcoin price and recent volatility 3. Market context (halving cycle, macro factors, etc.) Without the specific price bounds, I can't evaluate whether 43% is over/under-priced. Could you share the exact price range for the YES outcome?
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.43,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have enough information to give a meaningful probability. The question asks about a \"Bitcoin price range\" but doesn't specify what that range is. \n\nTo assess this, I'd need to know:\n1. What specific price range defines \"YES\" (e.g., $X-$Y)?\n2. Current Bitcoin price and recent volatility\n3. Ma",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 13.795982122421265
}