GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-42
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 58.0, "implied_p": 0.58} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-42", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0013690000000000004, "prob_error": 0.037000000000000005, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Entertainment): "Will ARIRANG have At least 560000 pure album sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for March 27, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 58.00 cents (implied probability 0.580). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Based on the search results, here's the key data: **Hits Daily Double (March 24 preview)**: 540,000 US copies - Billboard (March 29): 532,000 pure album sales (physical + digital) - Hanteo (Korea tracker): 4.17M global, but that's global not US-only The question asks specifically about **Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for March 27, 2026** and **≥560,000 pure album sales** (US pure sales per HDD). The March 24 HDD preview showed **540K US copies**. The final March 27 chart would be similar or slightly higher, but 540K → 560K+ is a ~3.7% jump in 3 days—unlikely for a K-pop album in its 2nd week (typical drop 60-80% week-over-week). The Billboard pure sales figure (532K) also supports ~530-540K range. **My probability: ~15-20%** The market's 58% implies a ~540K→560K+ jump is likely, but K-pop second weeks typically drop 60-80%. The 540K preview suggests final ~530-550K range. 560K+ is ~20K+ above the tracking trend—unlikely without a major event (which didn't happen per Billboard's 3-week tracking). function calls The market's 58% is too high. My probability: **~15-20%** With $1000 bankroll, Kelly criterion suggests ~$150-200 bet on NO (or ~$150-200 on NO at ~4:1 odds implied by 15-20% vs 58% market).
Parsed
{
"action": "double",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.037000000000000005,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Based on the search results, here's the key data:\n\n**Hits Daily Double (March 24 preview)**: 540,000 US copies\n- Billboard (March 29): 532,000 pure album sales (physical + digital)\n- Hanteo (Korea tracker): 4.17M global, but that's global not US-only\n\nThe question asks specifically about **Hits Dail",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 79.26103806495667
}