GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-41
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 20.0, "implied_p": 0.2} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-41", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": null, "prob_error": null, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will 2026 Masters Tournament winner say during 2026 Masters Champion’s Press Conference?". The market currently prices YES at 20.00 cents (implied probability 0.200). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This question is too underspecified to give a meaningful probability. The market title says "Mentions" — what specific word, phrase, or topic is the market tracking? (e.g., "God", "LIV Golf", "Tiger Woods", "pressure", a specific sponsor, etc.) Without knowing the exact resolution criterion, any probability would be a guess. If you can share the full market description or the specific mention being tracked, I can offer a better assessment.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This question is too underspecified to give a meaningful probability. The market title says \"Mentions\" \u2014 what specific word, phrase, or topic is the market tracking? (e.g., \"God\", \"LIV Golf\", \"Tiger Woods\", \"pressure\", a specific sponsor, etc.)\n\nWithout knowing the exact resolution criterion, any pr",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 33.266226291656494
}