GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-40
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 29.0, "implied_p": 0.29} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-40", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.36, "prob_error": 0.6, "calibration_bin": 4} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 100000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 29.00 cents (implied probability 0.290). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I'd estimate **~35-40%** probability. Reasoning: The market's 29% implies skepticism about sustained job growth above 100k by March 2026. Historically, even in cooling cycles, 100k+ monthly gains remain common unless a recession hits. Key factors: - **Labor market normalization**: Post-pandemic excess demand has largely unwound; gains have moderated to 150-200k range recently - **Fed policy**: Rate cuts likely underway by early 2026, supportive of hiring - **Recession risk**: Non-trivial but not base case (~25-30% odds per consensus) - **Demographics**: Aging workforce structurally limits potential growth The 29% market price seems to overweight recession/tail-risk scenarios. Unless you have a strong view that a downturn is imminent, the fair probability is modestly above the market.
Parsed
{
"action": "hit",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.4,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I'd estimate **~35-40%** probability.\n\nReasoning: The market's 29% implies skepticism about sustained job growth above 100k by March 2026. Historically, even in cooling cycles, 100k+ monthly gains remain common unless a recession hits. Key factors:\n- **Labor market normalization**: Post-pandemic exc",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 23.24161672592163
}