GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-4
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-4", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0001, "prob_error": 0.01, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Eastern Conference Finals Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This question is incomplete. "Eastern Conference Finals Winner?" isn't a valid binary (YES/NO) market question — it needs a specific team (e.g., "Will the Celtics win the Eastern Conference Finals?"). Which team is this market for? The 1¢ price (1% implied) only makes sense for a massive longshot (e.g., a play-in team), and would be severely mispriced for any legitimate contender.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.01,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This question is incomplete. \"Eastern Conference Finals Winner?\" isn't a valid binary (YES/NO) market question \u2014 it needs a specific team (e.g., \"Will the Celtics win the Eastern Conference Finals?\").\n\nWhich team is this market for? The 1\u00a2 price (1% implied) only makes sense for a massive longshot (",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 20.144505739212036
}