GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-39
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 33.0, "implied_p": 0.33} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-39", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.10890000000000001, "prob_error": 0.33, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 5?". The market currently prices YES at 33.00 cents (implied probability 0.330). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have access to current sports data (recent form, field strength, course conditions, injuries, weather) needed to form a well-calibrated probability on this specific market. To assess this properly you'd want: - Bhatia's recent stroke-gained stats (approach, around-the-green, putting) - His major championship track record & Augusta National history - Current field strength & how many elite players are in form - Course setup & weather forecast for the week - Any injury or equipment changes Without that data, any number I'd give would be a guess. The market's 33% implies he's roughly a 2:1 underdog — reasonable for a talented but not yet elite major contender at Augusta. If you have an edge (e.g., you track his wedge game closely and it's peaking), bet accordingly. Otherwise, the market price is probably more informed than a priors-only estimate.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.33,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have access to current sports data (recent form, field strength, course conditions, injuries, weather) needed to form a well-calibrated probability on this specific market.\n\nTo assess this properly you'd want:\n- Bhatia's recent stroke-gained stats (approach, around-the-green, putting)\n- His ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.581198930740356
}