GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-38
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 35.0, "implied_p": 0.35} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-38", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 24, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 35.00 cents (implied probability 0.350). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I can't provide a meaningful probability without knowing the **specific price range** the market is asking about (e.g., "$80k-$100k", ">$150k", etc.). The question as stated is incomplete. Also, I don't have: - Real-time Bitcoin price data or forecasts - Access to prediction market details (Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.) - Any special insight into BTC price on a specific future date If you share the exact price range, I could discuss factors to consider (macro, halving cycle, ETF flows, regulation, etc.), but any probability would be pure speculation. The market's 35% implied probability already aggregates all available information from participants.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.35,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I can't provide a meaningful probability without knowing the **specific price range** the market is asking about (e.g., \"$80k-$100k\", \">$150k\", etc.). The question as stated is incomplete.\n\nAlso, I don't have:\n- Real-time Bitcoin price data or forecasts\n- Access to prediction market details (Polymar",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 19.72553586959839
}