GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-36
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 24.0, "implied_p": 0.24} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-36", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.12249999999999998, "prob_error": 0.35, "calibration_bin": 6} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Ezra Taylor vs Willy Hutchinson Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 24.00 cents (implied probability 0.240). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Based on the fight analysis, here's my assessment: **Fight Summary:** - **Willy Hutchinson (19-2, 14 KOs)**: WBC #6, 27yo, former world title challenger (lost SD to Buatsi), beat Craig Richards (UD), now with Shane McGuigan - **Ezra Taylor (13-0, 9 KOs)**: WBA #8/IBF #14, 31yo, unbeaten but untested at world level, 1" height advantage **Sportsbook consensus odds:** - Hutchinson: ~65% (-190) - Taylor: ~37% (+150) - Draw: ~7% **Interpretation:** The market "Ezra Taylor vs Willy Hutchinson Winner?" at 24¢ YES most likely means "Ezra Taylor wins" (since Hutchinson is the clear favorite). **My probability: ~35-38% for Taylor winning** The 24¢ price (24% implied) significantly underprices Taylor's chances vs. sportsbook consensus (~37%). Taylor has genuine physical advantages (height, power, unbeaten) and Hutchinson has shown vulnerability (Buatsi loss, occasional lapses). However, Hutchinson's championship experience, McGuigan corner, and proven ability over 12 rounds against elite opposition make him rightly favored. **Bottom line:** If YES = Taylor wins, the market is **mispriced low** — fair value ~35-38¢. If YES = Hutchinson wins, the market is **wildly mispriced** (fair ~65¢). Given standard prediction market phrasing, I'll assume the former.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.65,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Based on the fight analysis, here's my assessment:\n\n**Fight Summary:**\n- **Willy Hutchinson (19-2, 14 KOs)**: WBC #6, 27yo, former world title challenger (lost SD to Buatsi), beat Craig Richards (UD), now with Shane McGuigan\n- **Ezra Taylor (13-0, 9 KOs)**: WBA #8/IBF #14, 31yo, unbeaten but unteste",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 54.294353008270264
}