GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-35
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 27.0, "implied_p": 0.27} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-35", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0729, "prob_error": 0.27, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Nebraska qualify for the Men's March Madness Elite Eight?". The market currently prices YES at 27.00 cents (implied probability 0.270). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have current data on Nebraska's roster, season performance, tournament bracket, or injuries to form an informed probability. The market's 27% is a reasonable baseline absent specific information. To improve on the market, you'd need: current KenPom/NET rankings, key player status, bracket path difficulty, and recent form. Without that, I'd stay near 0.27 or pass. What's your edge/outside view on this?
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.27,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have current data on Nebraska's roster, season performance, tournament bracket, or injuries to form an informed probability. The market's 27% is a reasonable baseline absent specific information.\n\nTo improve on the market, you'd need: current KenPom/NET rankings, key player status, bracket p",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.417717933654785
}