GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-35

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-35", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0729, "prob_error": 0.27, "calibration_bin": 2}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

I don't have current data on Nebraska's roster, season performance, tournament bracket, or injuries to form an informed probability. The market's 27% is a reasonable baseline absent specific information.

To improve on the market, you'd need: current KenPom/NET rankings, key player status, bracket path difficulty, and recent form. Without that, I'd stay near 0.27 or pass.

What's your edge/outside view on this?

Parsed

{
 "action": "no_bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.27,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "I don't have current data on Nebraska's roster, season performance, tournament bracket, or injuries to form an informed probability. The market's 27% is a reasonable baseline absent specific information.\n\nTo improve on the market, you'd need: current KenPom/NET rankings, key player status, bracket p",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 13.417717933654785
}