GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-34
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 36.0, "implied_p": 0.36} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-34", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": null, "prob_error": null, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "SOL price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 36.00 cents (implied probability 0.360). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have real-time SOL price data or predictive models for 15-minute crypto movements. Without an edge, my probability equals the market's 0.360. At $1000 bankroll, Kelly criterion would suggest $0 bet (no edge).
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have real-time SOL price data or predictive models for 15-minute crypto movements. Without an edge, my probability equals the market's 0.360.\n\nAt $1000 bankroll, Kelly criterion would suggest $0 bet (no edge).",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 8.340706825256348
}