GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-33
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 21.0, "implied_p": 0.21} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-33", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 10?". The market currently prices YES at 21.00 cents (implied probability 0.210). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have real-time access to current PGA Tour stats, recent form, course-specific data, or field strength for this tournament. Without that information, I can't form an informed probability that differs meaningfully from the market. **Default approach:** Treat the market price (21%) as roughly efficient absent private info. Your probability ≈ 0.21. **If you want to beat the market**, you'd need: - Jaeger's recent strokes-gained trends (SG: Total, Approach, Putting) - Memorial Park course fit (short, tight, favors accurate drivers/good iron play) - Field strength vs. Jaeger's typical competition - Weather forecast (wind/firmness changes scoring) - Injury/rest status With a $1000 bankroll, Kelly criterion would suggest betting only if your edge > market vig. At 21¢ with typical 4-5¢ spread, you'd need ~25%+ true probability to justify a bet. Do you have access to DataGolf, FantasyNational, or PGA Tour stats to analyze this yourself?
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.21,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have real-time access to current PGA Tour stats, recent form, course-specific data, or field strength for this tournament. Without that information, I can't form an informed probability that differs meaningfully from the market.\n\n**Default approach:** Treat the market price (21%) as roughly ",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 19.96285390853882
}