GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-32
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 36.0, "implied_p": 0.36} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-32", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.09, "prob_error": 0.3, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be above 7029.9999 on Apr 16, 2026 at 2pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 36.00 cents (implied probability 0.360). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This market date (Apr 16, 2026) is in the past relative to today (Aug 3, 2026), so it should have already resolved. Assuming you meant a future date or this is hypothetical: **My probability: ~25-30%** (below the market's 36%) Key reasons: - S&P 500 would need ~15-20% annualized return from current levels to hit 7030, above historical averages - Elevated valuation multiples (Shiller PE ~35+) imply lower forward returns - Uncertainty from Fed policy, earnings growth, and geopolitical risks - Market's 36% implies excessive optimism vs. historical base rates At $1000 bankroll, I'd bet **$0** on YES (negative EV vs. market price). Would consider NO at ~64¢ if liquidity allows.
Parsed
{
"action": "hit",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.3,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This market date (Apr 16, 2026) is in the past relative to today (Aug 3, 2026), so it should have already resolved. Assuming you meant a future date or this is hypothetical:\n\n**My probability: ~25-30%** (below the market's 36%)\n\nKey reasons:\n- S&P 500 would need ~15-20% annualized return from curren",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.24379324913025
}