GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-31
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 30.0, "implied_p": 0.3} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-31", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.09, "prob_error": 0.3, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Valero Texas Open: Will Will Zalatoris finish top 20?". The market currently prices YES at 30.00 cents (implied probability 0.300). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have real-time sports data (current form, field strength, course fit, injuries, weather) to give an informed probability estimate on this specific tournament. This requires current golf analytics. For a proper estimate, you'd want to consider: - Zalatoris's recent stroke-gained stats (approach, tee-to-green, putting) - His course history at TPC San Antonio (Valero venue) - Current field strength and how many top players are attending - Weather forecast (wind affects scoring spread) - Any injury/recent withdrawal news If you have access to DataGolf, FantasyNational, or similar models, their top-20 finish probabilities would be more reliable than a general LLM estimate. Given only the market price of 30%: if you believe the market is efficient, your probability = 0.30. If you have an edge (model disagreement), bet Kelly fraction = (p - 0.30) / (1 - 0.30) of bankroll. What's your source for the 30¢ price? (Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, etc.)
Parsed
{
"action": "fold",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.3,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have real-time sports data (current form, field strength, course fit, injuries, weather) to give an informed probability estimate on this specific tournament. This requires current golf analytics.\n\nFor a proper estimate, you'd want to consider:\n- Zalatoris's recent stroke-gained stats (appro",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.296642780303955
}