GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-30
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 22.0, "implied_p": 0.22} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-30", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": null, "prob_error": null, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 31, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 22.00 cents (implied probability 0.220). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I need to know the specific price range the market is betting on. "Bitcoin price range" is ambiguous — what's the actual YES condition? (e.g., BTC > $100k, BTC between $50k-$75k, BTC < $20k, etc.)
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I need to know the specific price range the market is betting on. \"Bitcoin price range\" is ambiguous \u2014 what's the actual YES condition? (e.g., BTC > $100k, BTC between $50k-$75k, BTC < $20k, etc.)",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 14.858949899673462
}