GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-3
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-3", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0001, "prob_error": 0.01, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Mark Byington be the next permanent head coach of North Carolina men's college basketball?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Based on the current reporting (April 2026), Mark Byington is **actively in the mix** for the UNC job: - **Credible reports**: Pete Thamel (ESPN) named him "a name to watch" in UNC's search (Apr 4) - **Carolina ties**: VA native, UNCW alum, former UVA grad manager/assistant - **Strong resume**: 20-13 & 27-9 at Vanderbilt, back-to-back NCAA tournaments, Skip Prosser Award - **Major counter-signal**: Signed long-term extension at Vanderbilt on March 28, 2026 The 1% market price seems to heavily overweight the extension and underweight the persistent insider chatter. Coaching searches are fluid—extensions don't always prevent moves (see: Brian Kelly, Lincoln Riley). **My probability: ~20-25%** The market at 1% implies the extension is a near-certain deterrent. But Thamel mentioning him *after* the extension suggests UNC's interest is serious and Byington may be listening. At 20-25%, this would be a **+EV bet** at 1¢ (implied 1%), though with high variance. With a $1000 bankroll, Kelly criterion would suggest a small position (~$15-25) given the uncertainty.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.01,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Based on the current reporting (April 2026), Mark Byington is **actively in the mix** for the UNC job:\n\n- **Credible reports**: Pete Thamel (ESPN) named him \"a name to watch\" in UNC's search (Apr 4)\n- **Carolina ties**: VA native, UNCW alum, former UVA grad manager/assistant\n- **Strong resume**: 20-",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 46.27383303642273
}