GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-29
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 27.0, "implied_p": 0.27} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-29", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0729, "prob_error": 0.27, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Entertainment): "Top USA Song on Spotify on Mar 13, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 27.00 cents (implied probability 0.270). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This is a forecasting question about a future event (March 13, 2026) that I have no special information about. The market-implied probability of 27% reflects the collective wisdom of participants who may have better models or private information. Without access to: - Upcoming release schedules - Artist promotional campaigns - Seasonal listening patterns - Real-time streaming data My honest probability would be **~0.27 (27%)** — essentially deferring to the market price since I have no edge. The efficient market hypothesis suggests prediction markets aggregate information well for entertainment outcomes. If forced to bet $1000 bankroll: I'd likely **pass** (bet $0) since I have no informational advantage over the market. The Kelly criterion would suggest zero bet when edge ≈ 0. Would you like me to outline a framework for how one *could* model this (e.g., using historical Spotify charts, release calendars, artist momentum metrics)?
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": 1.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.27,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This is a forecasting question about a future event (March 13, 2026) that I have no special information about. The market-implied probability of 27% reflects the collective wisdom of participants who may have better models or private information.\n\nWithout access to:\n- Upcoming release schedules\n- Ar",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 35.83032703399658
}