GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-25
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 6.0, "implied_p": 0.06} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-25", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will Pete Hegseth say during Pentagon Press Briefing on April 7th?". The market currently prices YES at 6.00 cents (implied probability 0.060). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have access to real-time prediction market data or specific information about Pete Hegseth's upcoming Pentagon Press Briefing on April 7th. My training data doesn't include current events or live market prices. For a meaningful probability estimate, you'd need: - The exact market question (what specific statement/claim is being predicted) - Context on Hegseth's recent positions and briefing patterns - Current geopolitical/military news that might drive his remarks - Market volume and liquidity data With a $1000 bankroll and a 6¢ price (6% implied), this is a low-probability/long-shot market. Without knowing the specific proposition, I can't assess whether 6% is over/underpriced. If you have the exact market wording or more context, I could help reason through the factors. Otherwise, this requires real-time research on the specific claim being predicted.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.06,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have access to real-time prediction market data or specific information about Pete Hegseth's upcoming Pentagon Press Briefing on April 7th. My training data doesn't include current events or live market prices.\n\nFor a meaningful probability estimate, you'd need:\n- The exact market question (",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 12.806723833084106
}