GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-24
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-24", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": null, "prob_error": null, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
The question is incomplete - "Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?" doesn't specify what price range the market is betting on (e.g., >$100k, <$50k, $75k-$100k, etc.). Could you clarify the specific price range/condition for the YES outcome?
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "The question is incomplete - \"Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?\" doesn't specify what price range the market is betting on (e.g., >$100k, <$50k, $75k-$100k, etc.). \n\nCould you clarify the specific price range/condition for the YES outcome?",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 7.837632894515991
}