GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-23
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 14.0, "implied_p": 0.14} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-23", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": null, "prob_error": null, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Ethereum price at Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 14.00 cents (implied probability 0.140). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This question is incomplete — prediction markets need a specific price threshold (strike) to resolve YES/NO. For example: "ETH > $3,000" or "ETH > $2,500 at Apr 3, 2026 5pm EDT?" What's the strike price for this market?
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This question is incomplete \u2014 prediction markets need a specific price threshold (strike) to resolve YES/NO. For example: \"ETH > $3,000\" or \"ETH > $2,500 at Apr 3, 2026 5pm EDT?\"\n\nWhat's the strike price for this market?",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.306636095046997
}