GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-pricing-22

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
fieldvalue
subjectNemotron-3-Ultra
moduleprediction_market · rationality
ground truth{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05}
score{"id": "market-pricing-22", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0025000000000000005, "prob_error": 0.05, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "XRP price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

I don't have a probability estimate. I lack real-time XRP price data, order book visibility, volatility models, and market microstructure access needed to assess a 15-minute directional move.

The market's 5% implied probability suggests traders see this as very unlikely. Whether that's mispriced depends on information I don't have (current volatility regime, funding rates, order flow, news flow, etc.).

If you have a modeled edge (e.g., you estimate true probability *p* ≠ 0.05), the Kelly fraction would be:
```
f = (p - 0.05) / (1 - 0.05)  [for a binary contract paying $1]
```
On $1000 bankroll, bet = f × $1000 (capped at reasonable risk limits).

Without a modeled edge, this is a negative-EV bet after fees/spread.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.05,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "I don't have a probability estimate. I lack real-time XRP price data, order book visibility, volatility models, and market microstructure access needed to assess a 15-minute directional move.\n\nThe market's 5% implied probability suggests traders see this as very unlikely. Whether that's mispriced de",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 12.25633978843689
}