GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-2
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-2", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0001, "prob_error": 0.01, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will the Milwaukee pro basketball team win at least 40 times this season?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This market pricing (1% implied probability) seems extremely mispriced for the Milwaukee Bucks to win ≥40 games in an 82-game NBA season. **My probability: ~95%+** Reasoning: - The Bucks have been a 50+ win team for most of the Giannis Antetokounmpo era - 40 wins is only a .488 winning percentage — a very low bar for a franchise with a two-time MVP in his prime - Even in down/injury years (2022-23: 58 wins, 2023-24: 49 wins), they've cleared this easily - Only a catastrophic, season-ending injury to Giannis *very early* would make this plausible The 1% price suggests the market either: 1. Knows Giannis is out for the year (unlikely to not be public) 2. Is severely mispriced / thinly traded 3. This is a different "Milwaukee pro basketball team" (not the Bucks?) **Bet sizing (Kelly fraction):** At 95% true probability vs 1% market, full Kelly would suggest ~94% of bankroll. Given model uncertainty and possible hidden info, I'd cap at 10-20% ($100-200) — still a massive edge. *Caveat: I don't have real-time 2024-25 season data. Check current injury reports and standings before betting.*
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": 0.94,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.01,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This market pricing (1% implied probability) seems extremely mispriced for the Milwaukee Bucks to win \u226540 games in an 82-game NBA season.\n\n**My probability: ~95%+**\n\nReasoning:\n- The Bucks have been a 50+ win team for most of the Giannis Antetokounmpo era\n- 40 wins is only a .488 winning percentage ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 32.0698721408844
}