GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-2

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-2", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0001, "prob_error": 0.01, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 9, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

This market pricing (1% implied probability) seems extremely mispriced for the Milwaukee Bucks to win ≥40 games in an 82-game NBA season.

**My probability: ~95%+**

Reasoning:
- The Bucks have been a 50+ win team for most of the Giannis Antetokounmpo era
- 40 wins is only a .488 winning percentage — a very low bar for a franchise with a two-time MVP in his prime
- Even in down/injury years (2022-23: 58 wins, 2023-24: 49 wins), they've cleared this easily
- Only a catastrophic, season-ending injury to Giannis *very early* would make this plausible

The 1% price suggests the market either:
1. Knows Giannis is out for the year (unlikely to not be public)
2. Is severely mispriced / thinly traded
3. This is a different "Milwaukee pro basketball team" (not the Bucks?)

**Bet sizing (Kelly fraction):** At 95% true probability vs 1% market, full Kelly would suggest ~94% of bankroll. Given model uncertainty and possible hidden info, I'd cap at 10-20% ($100-200) — still a massive edge.

*Caveat: I don't have real-time 2024-25 season data. Check current injury reports and standings before betting.*

Parsed

{
 "action": "stand",
 "bet_size": 0.94,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.01,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "This market pricing (1% implied probability) seems extremely mispriced for the Milwaukee Bucks to win \u226540 games in an 82-game NBA season.\n\n**My probability: ~95%+**\n\nReasoning:\n- The Bucks have been a 50+ win team for most of the Giannis Antetokounmpo era\n- 40 wins is only a .488 winning percentage ",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 32.0698721408844
}