GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-19
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-19", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0144, "prob_error": 0.12, "calibration_bin": 1} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Phoenix win the 1H by over 13.5 points?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have real-time access to XRP prices, order book data, or current market conditions to make an informed probability assessment. The 12% market price reflects the collective wisdom of participants with live data. For a meaningful estimate, you'd need: - Current XRP spot price and volatility - Trimmed mean calculation methodology (which exchanges, time windows) - Options-implied volatility or futures term structure - Macro crypto market regime (correlation with BTC/ETH) - Regulatory catalysts (SEC case timeline, ETF filings) Without live data, any probability I'd give would be uninformed speculation. The market's 12% is likely more accurate than a guess from stale knowledge. If you have current XRP price, 30-day realized vol, and the specific trimmed-mean methodology, I could walk through a parametric estimate (e.g., log-normal assumption with drift from forwards).
Parsed
{
"action": "walk",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.12,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have real-time access to XRP prices, order book data, or current market conditions to make an informed probability assessment. The 12% market price reflects the collective wisdom of participants with live data.\n\nFor a meaningful estimate, you'd need:\n- Current XRP spot price and volatility\n-",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.059725761413574
}