GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-19
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 12.0, "implied_p": 0.12} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-19", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0144, "prob_error": 0.12, "calibration_bin": 1} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Will XRP trimmed mean be below $1.30 by 11:59 PM ET on Mar 31, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 12.00 cents (implied probability 0.120). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have real-time access to XRP prices, order book data, or current market conditions to make an informed probability assessment. The 12% market price reflects the collective wisdom of participants with live data. For a meaningful estimate, you'd need: - Current XRP spot price and volatility - Trimmed mean calculation methodology (which exchanges, time windows) - Options-implied volatility or futures term structure - Macro crypto market regime (correlation with BTC/ETH) - Regulatory catalysts (SEC case timeline, ETF filings) Without live data, any probability I'd give would be uninformed speculation. The market's 12% is likely more accurate than a guess from stale knowledge. If you have current XRP price, 30-day realized vol, and the specific trimmed-mean methodology, I could walk through a parametric estimate (e.g., log-normal assumption with drift from forwards).
Parsed
{
"action": "walk",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.12,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have real-time access to XRP prices, order book data, or current market conditions to make an informed probability assessment. The 12% market price reflects the collective wisdom of participants with live data.\n\nFor a meaningful estimate, you'd need:\n- Current XRP spot price and volatility\n-",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.059725761413574
}