GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-13
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-13", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.04000000000000001, "prob_error": 0.2, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Santa Clara qualify for the Men's March Madness Round of 32?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This is a sports betting question requiring domain knowledge I don't have current access to (Santa Clara's 2024-25 season performance, WCC standings, KenPom rankings, bracket projections). **Key factors to assess:** - Santa Clara's WCC tournament odds (likely need auto-bid; at-large near-impossible for non-Gonzaga WCC teams) - If they make tournament: seed projection (likely 13-16) → first-round win probability ~10-20% - Composite: P(make tournament) × P(win R64 | make tournament) **Market implied: 1%** Without current data, I'd anchor near market but with wide uncertainty. If you have KenPom/BartTorvik/WarrenNolan numbers or WCC tournament odds, I can refine. **Rough prior:** 0.5%-2% seems plausible range. Market at 1% isn't obviously wrong. What's your edge/information source?
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.2,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This is a sports betting question requiring domain knowledge I don't have current access to (Santa Clara's 2024-25 season performance, WCC standings, KenPom rankings, bracket projections).\n\n**Key factors to assess:**\n- Santa Clara's WCC tournament odds (likely need auto-bid; at-large near-impossible",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 15.083069086074829
}