GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-11
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-11", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0001, "prob_error": 0.01, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Eyupspor vs Samsunspor Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Based on the search results, there are multiple Eyupspor vs Samsunspor matches across different dates. The market price of **1.00¢ (1% implied probability)** is extremely low for a standard match winner market. **Key context from recent matches:** - **Dec 8, 2024** (Eyupspor home): Eyupspor 3–0 Samsunspor - **May 4, 2025** (Samsunspor home): Samsunspor 3–0 Eyupspor - **Nov 9, 2025** (Samsunspor home): Samsunspor 1–0 Eyupspor - **Apr 13, 2026** (Eyupspor home, upcoming): Bookmakers price Eyupspor ~25% (+290), Samsunspor ~52% (-109), Draw ~23% **My probability assessment:** - If "YES" = **Eyupspor wins at Samsunspor's home**: ~15–20% (Samsunspor strong at home, Eyupspor poor away) - If "YES" = **Samsunspor wins at Eyupspor's home**: ~50% (contradicts 1% price) - If "YES" = **Draw**: ~25% (contradicts 1% price) **The 1% price only makes sense if:** 1. The market is for **Eyupspor winning at Samsunspor's stadium** (away), OR 2. It's a **specific exotic market** (exact score, HT/FT combo, etc.), OR 3. The market is **mispriced/illiquid** **My estimate: ~12–18%** for Eyupspor winning away at Samsunspor, based on: - Eyupspor: 1 win in last 8 away (0.40 goals/game, 1.30 conceded) - Samsunspor home: 5–4–1 last 10 (1.50 scored, 0.70 conceded) - H2H at Samsunspor: 3–0, 1–0, 2–1, 2–0, 3–1 (Samsunspor dominant) **Kelly bet sizing** (bankroll $1000): - If my p=15% vs market 1%: edge = 14%, Kelly fraction ≈ 14% / (99/1) ≈ **0.14% of bankroll = $1.40** - Even at p=18%, bet ≈ **$1.80** **Conclusion:** The market 1% is likely **too low** for Eyupspor away win (true prob ~15%), but the edge is small in absolute terms. Not a significant betting opportunity at $1000 bankroll unless you have strong private info.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": 0.0014000000000000002,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.01,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Based on the search results, there are multiple Eyupspor vs Samsunspor matches across different dates. The market price of **1.00\u00a2 (1% implied probability)** is extremely low for a standard match winner market.\n\n**Key context from recent matches:**\n- **Dec 8, 2024** (Eyupspor home): Eyupspor 3\u20130 Sam",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 69.17698001861572
}