GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-1
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-1", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 5, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I cannot provide a meaningful probability assessment for this market. Critical information is missing: 1. **What price threshold resolves YES?** The question "Bitcoin price on Apr 5, 2026?" is incomplete — is YES triggered above $100k? Below $50k? At an exact price? 2. **No real-time data access** — I don't know Bitcoin's current price, the specific contract terms, or market liquidity. 3. **Crypto price forecasting 8+ months out is highly unreliable** — Bitcoin's volatility makes any precise probability estimate speculative. The market's 1% implied probability could be rational or mispriced depending entirely on the strike price. Without the resolution criteria, any estimate would be a guess. If you clarify the exact YES condition (e.g., "BTC > $150k on Apr 5, 2026"), I can discuss the factors to consider (volatility, time value, risk-neutral vs real-world measure), but I still wouldn't assign a precise probability.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.01,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I cannot provide a meaningful probability assessment for this market. Critical information is missing:\n\n1. **What price threshold resolves YES?** The question \"Bitcoin price on Apr 5, 2026?\" is incomplete \u2014 is YES triggered above $100k? Below $50k? At an exact price?\n\n2. **No real-time data access**",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 22.59195613861084
}