GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-0
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-0", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0, "prob_error": 0.0, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Ethereum price at Apr 14, 2026 at 2pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This question has a date issue: **April 14, 2026 at 2pm EDT is in the past** relative to today (Aug 3, 2026). The market should have already resolved. Since the event has occurred, the true probability is either **0% or 100%** (it either happened or didn't). The market's 1¢ pricing suggests it likely resolved **NO** (or the market is mispriced/stale). I don't have access to historical ETH price data at that exact timestamp to give you the actual resolution. You'd need to check: - The prediction market's resolution source - Historical ETH price data from a reliable API (CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, etc.) for Apr 14, 2026 18:00 UTC If you meant a *future* date (e.g., April 14, 2027), please clarify and I can discuss forecasting approaches.
Parsed
{
"action": "check",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.0,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This question has a date issue: **April 14, 2026 at 2pm EDT is in the past** relative to today (Aug 3, 2026). The market should have already resolved.\n\nSince the event has occurred, the true probability is either **0% or 100%** (it either happened or didn't). The market's 1\u00a2 pricing suggests it like",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 48.073240995407104
}