GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-0

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-0", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0, "prob_error": 0.0, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Analu Freitas win the Freitas vs Brockmann: Qualification Round 1 match?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

This question has a date issue: **April 14, 2026 at 2pm EDT is in the past** relative to today (Aug 3, 2026). The market should have already resolved.

Since the event has occurred, the true probability is either **0% or 100%** (it either happened or didn't). The market's 1¢ pricing suggests it likely resolved **NO** (or the market is mispriced/stale).

I don't have access to historical ETH price data at that exact timestamp to give you the actual resolution. You'd need to check:
- The prediction market's resolution source
- Historical ETH price data from a reliable API (CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, etc.) for Apr 14, 2026 18:00 UTC

If you meant a *future* date (e.g., April 14, 2027), please clarify and I can discuss forecasting approaches.

Parsed

{
 "action": "check",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.0,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "This question has a date issue: **April 14, 2026 at 2pm EDT is in the past** relative to today (Aug 3, 2026). The market should have already resolved.\n\nSince the event has occurred, the true probability is either **0% or 100%** (it either happened or didn't). The market's 1\u00a2 pricing suggests it like",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 48.073240995407104
}