GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-9
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 41.0, "implied_p": 0.41} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-9", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.15254237288135594, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Seattle vs San Diego First Inning Run?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 41.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: no_bet, bet_size = 0.00** **Reasoning:** My independent estimate of a first-inning run (Seattle vs San Diego, no lineup/pitcher info given) is roughly 42–48% — essentially the same as the market's 41 cents. With no genuine edge over a liquid market and a fair-value outcome near a coin flip, expected value is ~0 and the position offers no informational advantage worth risking bankroll. Passing preserves the full $1000.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.48,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet, bet_size = 0.00**\n\n**Reasoning:** My independent estimate of a first-inning run (Seattle vs San Diego, no lineup/pitcher info given) is roughly 42\u201348% \u2014 essentially the same as the market's 41 cents. With no genuine edge over a liquid market and a fair-value outcome near a coin f",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 14.526149034500122
}