GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-7
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 38.0, "implied_p": 0.38} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-7", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.1935483870967742, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Tyler Glasnow: 8+ strikeouts?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 38.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**no_bet, bet_size = 0.00** Reasoning: Tyler Glasnow is on the 60-day IL (lower-back spasms) — he last pitched May 6, 2026, has been shut down multiple times, and isn't expected back until ~Aug 21. There's no near-term start for him, and even a first start back would likely carry a pitch cap (~75-85 pitches), so hitting 8+ K is unlikely (~15-25% fair probability, well below the 38¢ asking price). Buying YES at 0.38 has negative expected value, so no bet.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.25,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**no_bet, bet_size = 0.00**\n\nReasoning: Tyler Glasnow is on the 60-day IL (lower-back spasms) \u2014 he last pitched May 6, 2026, has been shut down multiple times, and isn't expected back until ~Aug 21. There's no near-term start for him, and even a first start back would likely carry a pitch cap (~75-8",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 35.64806509017944
}