GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-6

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 36.0, "implied_p": 0.36}
score	{"id": "market-value-6", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Mentions): "Will the White House Press Secretary say Illegal Alien at her next press briefing?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 36.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

**Decision: no_bet, bet_size = 0**

My probability estimate for YES (NY Y wins by 3+ runs): **~0.30**

Reasoning:
- Baseball win margins concentrate at 1–2 runs; only ~50% of wins are by 3+ runs.
- Backing out of the 0.34 price, that implies NY Y wins the game ~0.34/0.50 ≈ 68% of the time — a very heavy favorite I can't confirm without the moneyline.
- For a more typical favorite (~60–64% win prob), fair YES ≈ 0.30–0.32.

Buying YES at $0.34 is negative EV (EV ≈ -$0.04/share), and Kelly on a negative-EV bet is 0. No bet.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.5,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet, bet_size = 0**\n\nMy probability estimate for YES (NY Y wins by 3+ runs): **~0.30**\n\nReasoning:\n- Baseball win margins concentrate at 1\u20132 runs; only ~50% of wins are by 3+ runs.\n- Backing out of the 0.34 price, that implies NY Y wins the game ~0.34/0.50 \u2248 68% of the time \u2014 a very h",
 "refused": true,
 "duration_s": 26.671998023986816
}