GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-5
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 37.0, "implied_p": 0.37} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-5", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.20634920634920637, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Evil Geniuses Academy win the Evil Geniuses Academy vs. NRG Academy Valorant match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 37.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
no_bet bet_size: 0.0 Reason: The only market data given is the price 24 hours ago (56¢); I have no current price, opponent, or injury/line info to form an independent estimate with an edge over the market. Without an edge, expected value is negative after the spread, so no bet is rational.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "no_bet\n\nbet_size: 0.0\n\nReason: The only market data given is the price 24 hours ago (56\u00a2); I have no current price, opponent, or injury/line info to form an independent estimate with an edge over the market. Without an edge, expected value is negative after the spread, so no bet is rational.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.562700986862183
}