GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-48
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 29.0, "implied_p": 0.29} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-48", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.295774647887324, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Cerro Largo vs Cerro Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 29.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**no_bet, bet_size = 0** Without independent information about this matchup, my best estimate is the market's own implied probability (~29%). At p = market price, expected value ≈ 0 and the Kelly fraction is (p − 0.29)/0.71 = 0. Betting only makes sense with a genuine edge; I don't have one here.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.29,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**no_bet, bet_size = 0**\n\nWithout independent information about this matchup, my best estimate is the market's own implied probability (~29%). At p = market price, expected value \u2248 0 and the Kelly fraction is (p \u2212 0.29)/0.71 = 0. Betting only makes sense with a genuine edge; I don't have one here.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.000772953033447
}