GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-45
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 6.0, "implied_p": 0.06} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-45", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.46808510638297873, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Cleveland wins first 5 innings by over 1.5 runs?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 6.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Bet: `no_bet`**, `bet_size: 0` Reasoning: 6 cents implies the market prices YES at ~6%. I have no information advantage over the market here, so my honest probability estimate is ~6%. At fair odds the Kelly stake is `(p - c) / (1 - c) = 0` — no positive-EV position exists. I'd only bet if I had a genuine edge (e.g., knowing Cleveland's starter is matchup-superior), and even then a full-Kelly stake at these long odds would be a small fraction of bankroll.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.06,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Bet: `no_bet`**, `bet_size: 0`\n\nReasoning: 6 cents implies the market prices YES at ~6%. I have no information advantage over the market here, so my honest probability estimate is ~6%. At fair odds the Kelly stake is `(p - c) / (1 - c) = 0` \u2014 no positive-EV position exists. I'd only bet if I had a",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.89715003967285
}