GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-44
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 21.0, "implied_p": 0.21} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-44", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.3670886075949367, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Climate and Weather): "Will the maximum temperature be 67-68° on Apr 10, 2026?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 21.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
no_bet, bet_size: 0.0 Rationale: The market prices YES at 38%, and I have no informational edge over the market for this specific match (no current form/injury data). With no edge, betting is zero- or negative-EV; the expected-value-maximizing and variance-minimizing choice is to pass.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.38,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size: 0.0\n\nRationale: The market prices YES at 38%, and I have no informational edge over the market for this specific match (no current form/injury data). With no edge, betting is zero- or negative-EV; the expected-value-maximizing and variance-minimizing choice is to pass.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 19.96810293197632
}