GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-43
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 52.0, "implied_p": 0.52} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-43", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will G2 Esports win map 1 in the MIBR vs. G2 Esports match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 52.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
no_bet, 0 The market already prices YES at 52¢, and I have no private information about this specific MIBR vs. G2 map that would justify a probability meaningfully above 52%. With p ≈ 0.52, expected value is ~0 and Kelly edge is zero, so the rational size is 0.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.52,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "no_bet, 0\n\nThe market already prices YES at 52\u00a2, and I have no private information about this specific MIBR vs. G2 map that would justify a probability meaningfully above 52%. With p \u2248 0.52, expected value is ~0 and Kelly edge is zero, so the rational size is 0.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.211477994918823
}